In brief
- Earnings slide as funded income contracts: Profit after tax fell 56.4% y/y to GHS 150.0mn in 9M2026, 8.0% below our forecast. 3Q2026 contributed only GHS 21.8mn. Net interest income dropped 32.4% y/y on moderate rates and a 44.5% fall in investment securities. Non-funded income rose 54.0% y/y, beating our forecast by 5.0%, but this was not enough to offset it. Operating expenses were flat y/y but 6.0% above our forecast, pushing the cost-to-income ratio up to 67.5%. Impairments turned into a GHS 27.2mn net charge.
- Liquidity parked in cash ahead of the takeover: Total assets grew 7.1% y/y, but loans rose only 8.2% and were flat on 1H2026, while deposits grew 14.4%. Liquidity freed from investment securities has gone into cash, up 52.7% y/y to GHS 4.0bn and well above the 20.0% CRR. We believe this reflects the pending sale to Attijariwafa Bank. CAR remains solid at 18.52%. The NPL ratio, however, rose to 13.98%, above the 10.0% limit as the FY2026 deadline approaches.
- Earnings to stay subdued through FY2026: We expect the bank to stay on its current trajectory into year-end, with little growth in earning assets while it holds cash during the takeover. We forecast inflation in the lower band of the BoG’s 8.0% ± 2.0% target, which could nudge rates up. That cuts both ways: it could lift interest income, but it could also pressure borrowers and NPLs. We expect FY2026 earnings to remain well below FY2025, with a lower dividend likely.
- Attijariwafa Bank is the medium-term catalyst: Morocco’s largest banking group brings deep corporate banking expertise and a strong record in financial innovation. We expect both to support growth in corporate banking and non-funded income once the takeover is complete. Redeploying idle liquidity into earning assets will be the key swing factor. Credit quality and cost discipline will be critical, as the impairment cushion has run its course. We maintain our SELL rating with a fair value of GHS 3.20, a 36.7% downside.
Rating Summary: We maintain our SELL rating on Societe Generale Ghana PLC (“SOGEGH”), with fair value nudging down to GHS 3.20 per share (vs GHS 4.10 prior estimate) against a current market price of GHS 5.05, implying a 36.7% downside. The lower fair value reflects a weaker-than-expected 9M2026 performance, with profit after tax trailing our forecast by 8.0%, and a risk-free rate of 13.87% (the average yield on the newly issued 7-year and 4-year bonds), to which we apply a 5.0% risk premium in place of CAPM as SOGEGH’s beta is not statistically valid. Although the 27.2% decline in the share price since our 1H2026 update has narrowed the downside from 41.1%, the stock still trades well above our fair value, with earnings under pressure, the NPL ratio above the 10.0% regulatory limit and excess liquidity yet to be deployed ahead of the change in ownership.