In brief
Earnings Update
- Lower Finance Costs and Revenue Growth Lift 9M2026 Profit: GOIL Plc released its unaudited 9M2026 financial results, posting a 9.3% y/y growth in profit-after-tax to GHS 90.8mn, an improvement on the 3.3% y/y growth recorded in 1H2026. Bottomline growth was underpinned by a 9.8% y/y increase in revenue to GHS 14.5bn and a 34.4% y/y plunge in financial charges to GHS 68.4mn. The increase in topline was supported by sustained volume growth and higher ex-pump prices.
Key Drivers of Our Rating
- Following a 28.7% decline in GOIL PLC’s share price from its 1H2026 level to GHS5.68, largely due to investor profit-taking, we now estimate a valuation gap which has moved our rating to a “Buy”, compared with our previous “Hold”, despite maintaining our fair value of GHS8.64. The unchanged fair value implies an upside potential of 52.1%, making the stock more attractive at its current price.
Strategic Near-to-Medium-Term Outlook
- We maintain a cautiously positive outlook on GOIL, underpinned by stronger standalone performance, ongoing deleveraging and recovering market share, which should support earnings into 4Q2026. Higher ex-pump fuel prices and an extensive service station network should sustain revenue growth, while lower borrowings should continue to ease financing costs. Over the medium term, the GOIL-SMB Bitumen Plant offers additional growth potential as the Government’s Big Push programme advances into more asphalt surfacing works. However, weaker subsidiary contributions, operational cost pressures and structurally thin margins remain key risks to earnings conversion, particularly amid regulatory pricing pressures and GOIL’s commitment to maintaining competitive fuel prices. We therefore expect standalone operations to remain the principal earnings driver.
Key risks to valuation
- Geopolitical tensions (Prolong US-Iran conflict), sustained high international product prices, Cedi depreciation, regulatory price interventions and statutory margin cuts, weaker subsidiary performance, lower-than-expected demand for bitumen, lower-than-expected fuel demand, intensifying competitive pressures, unexpected spike in finance costs and supply chain disruptions.