In brief
- Topline delivers, but tax clips earnings: MTN Ghana’s service revenue grew 33.5% y/y to GHS 23.2bn, and growth accelerated to 35.7% in 3Q2026 as voice and MoMo picked up. Profit after tax rose 43.0% y/y to GHS 7.8bn, but this was 10.0% below our forecast. The miss came mainly from a higher effective tax rate, 31.9% for 9M2026 and 34.1% in 3Q2026, while operating profit of GHS 11.8bn was broadly in line with our estimate.
- Margins and cash flow remain strong: EBITDA rose 40.6% y/y to GHS 14.3bn, with margin up 3.1pp to 61.5% despite selling and marketing costs running ahead of our estimate. Lower capex intensity (13.6%) helped free cash flow nearly double to GHS 7.4bn. A 3Q2026 dividend of GHS 0.06 brings the 9M2026 total to GHS 0.18.
- Growth to stay resilient as the 5G investment cycle begins: We expect FY2026 service revenue growth in the low-to-mid-30% range, driven by data (58.1% of service revenue), ecosystem monetisation and advanced MoMo services. We anticipate margins moderating towards the mid-to-high 50s as MTN Ghana deploys its USD 202mn 5G spectrum. In our view, a heavier tax burden and the cedi’s 10.1% depreciation this year are the key watchpoints.
- Rating: We maintain our BUY rating with a fair value of GHS 8.76 per share (vs GHS 8.90 prior), implying a 29.8% upside from the current price of GHS 6.75. The upside has widened because the share price fell after investors took profit following the 1H2026 results.