IC Fixed Income and Currency Guide

In brief

GHANA

Fixed Income:
Muted demand limits decline in yields while November 2026 upcoming T-bill maturities remain manageable. Ghana’s T-bill demand weakened in October 2026 as low yields dampened appetite, while Treasury resistance to higher term premiums capped 364-day allocations. Despite a 52.2% rise in November maturities to GHS18.8bn, lower weekly demand conditions should support rollover. On credit portfolio, we forecast the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) to edge down 3bps to 10.01%.

Currency:

Mild Cedi rebound in October: Gold-Linked FX Supply Supports Stability. The Ghanaian Cedi gained 0.6% in October, outperforming our selected seven African currencies as stronger extractive sector flows and GOLDBOD FX sales boosted dollar supply. However, festive season imports and higher fuel costs pose near-term risks. We expect the authorities to defend the GHS11.6 – 11.8/USD range into year-end.

KENYA

Fixed Income:
Demand strengthens but rising inflation limits further yield compression. Kenya’s T-bill demand strengthened in October on ample banking sector liquidity, with investors favouring 91-day bills amid rising inflation. The Treasury leveraged demand to lower yields and extend allotments. However, our estimated T-bills maturities increased by 79.0% to KES 249.5bn in November 2026, while inflation risks leave limited room for further yield compression.

Currency:
Shilling holds firm but reserve drawdown emerges as a key risk. The Kenyan shilling weakened by a modest 0.2% in October 2026 to KES 129.9/USD, preserving its low volatility carry appeal. However, rising energy import costs drove reserves down by 1.2% m/m to USD 14.74bn. Although buffers remain above statutory requirements, we believe the FX reserves decline warrants close monitoring for risk of sustained drawdown.

NIGERIA

Fixed Income:
Demand normalises: Tighter liquidity could lift T-Bill yields. Nigerian T-bill demand cooled in October as investors favoured higher-yielding OMO bills and the CBN’s Standing Deposit Facility (SDF). The Treasury trimmed its offer and rejected expensive bids to contain borrowing costs. We expect yields to edge higher in November as tighter OMO conditions, election risks and Fed decisions reprice the short end.

Currency:
Naira slides: Election risks likely trigger temporary FX setback. The Nigerian naira depreciated by 1.3% in October, despite stronger reserves and oil receipts, as election-related fiscal concerns and fuel subsidy pressures unsettled the market. However, we view the naira loss as temporary, due to robust FX buffers and higher oil prices which strengthens the current account.

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