Our key takeaways from the IMF statement

• Forex reserves are now the binding constraint: The Fund emphasized that vulnerabilities persist, particularly from the external sector, citing reserve declines that required corrective actions, which include the already transfered FX intermediation from the Bank of Ghana to the GoldBod and raising gold sale requirements for large-scale miners. We interpret “raising gold sale requirements for large-scale miners” as a reference to the newly established Ghana Accelerated National Reserves Accumulation Policy (GANRAP) 2026 – 2028. In August 2026, the Ghanaian authorities and large-scale miners signed a memorandum of understanding under the GANRAP, which requires large-scale miners to sell 30.0% of their gold output to the Bank of Ghana and the GoldBod. In our view, this raises the threshold from the previous requirement of 20.0% and supports reserve accumulation plans.

 

• We also view the IMF’s call for greater exchange rate flexibility as a signal of discomfort with reserve-draining interventions to smoothen short-term FX volatility as was observed in June 2026. Gross reserves fell from a record USD 14.5bn (5.7 months of import cover) in February 2026 to USD 11.1bn (4.2 months) by end-August, before recovering to USD 12.0bn in late September. Unsurprisingly, the September 2026 MPC meeting also stressed the reserve drawdown, and highlighted reserve rebuild as the priority for the months ahead. Against this backdrop, we expect a more market-determined Cedi (especially the USDGHS), with periodic adjustments rather than defended levels. That said, we maintain our expectation for the USDGHS to close 2026 between 11.6 – 11.8/USD.

 

• Softer fiscal anchor; execution and quasi-fiscal risks are the test: Consistent with our longstanding expectation, the upcoming 2027 Budget will target a lower primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP on a commitment basis, which the IMF judged as consistent with the PCI. The Fund’s stress on project appraisal and spending controls points to perceived risk of expenditure overrun from the authorities’ infrastructure push. However, we expect the Value for Money (VfM) office and the 2025 amended Procurement Act to help contain the spending risk. That said, Energy, cocoa and gold sector pressures persist. The IMF flagged delayed ECG audit. Also, the BOG’s liquidity management framework, Integrated Tax Administration System, operationalisation of the Fiscal Council, the Fiscal Risk Statement and the ethics reforms remain outstanding. In our view, these outstanding reforms highlight lingering  governance and idiosyncratic risk.