In brief
- Headline inflation rebounded in August, but underlying pressures remain contained. Ghana’s headline inflation increased by 40bps to 5.0% year-on-year in August 2026, driven mainly by non-food inflation and unfavourable base effects, while general prices fell 1.0% on a month-on-month basis. Food inflation eased marginally to 3.0% year-on-year, despite steep rise in the heavily weighted vegetable inflation. The higher inflation trims the real policy rate to 9.0% but remains 100bps below the BOG’s inflation target floor of 6.0%, preserving policy headroom. We therefore perceive little case for a change in the nominal policy rate at the upcoming MPC meeting. However, real returns have compressed with real rate for the 91-day T-bill now slightly in negative territory, which could prompt front-end repricing at the primary auctions.
- We foresee stable inflation with slight upside bias for the September 2026 print. Inflation for fresh tomatoes surged to 158.3% year-on-year in August 2026, but we view the spike as temporary, with increased harvests likely to ease food pressures in the month ahead. However, we also view the renewed energy price pressures as an offset to the expected food disinflation. Consequently, we forecast September 2026 headline inflation at 5.1% ±0.5pp while the month-on-month rate rises to 1.0%.
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