In brief
- Growth cools, but investment momentum holds. Ghana’s real GDP growth eased to 6.0% y/y in 2Q2026, reflecting softer non-oil activity and moderation in agriculture, gold and public services. However, we view the strong gross capital formation and government consumption expenditure as support for real sector investment and the growth outlook. We noted a contraction in household consumption expenditure but view it as a normalisation of demand as disinflation-induced real wage gains moderate while last year’s favourable base fades.
- We expect growth to re-accelerate in 2H2026. Given 1H2026 average growth of 6.2%, attaining our 6.4% FY2026 forecast requires a moderately stronger second half, which we estimate around 6.6%. We remain confident about continued recovery in oil & gas output into 2H2026 as Tullow Oil PLC’s management guidance indicates that new wells came on stream in July and August 2026 with initial production rates being in line with expectations. We tip ICT to remain the growth anchor for services while transports & storage, financial & insurance activities as well as trades provide further tailwind. We expect a boost in economic activity in 4Q2026 as the annual yuletide activities revive house final consumption expenditure. In view of this, we retain our FY2026 overall real GDP growth forecast at 6.4% ± 0.5pp.
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