Our views and highlights from the Board approval statement 

• The IMF struck a more bullish tone this time, compared to the steadily softer tone deployed over the first four reviews: The Fund’s fifth review struck a decisively upbeat tone, signalling renewed confidence in Ghana’s reform momentum and macroeconomic stability. With the praise for “strong” financial sector actions and “notable strides” in energy sector reforms, we think the IMF’s tone shift marks a clear vote of confidence ahead of a likely smooth Executive Board approval and disbursement of USD 385.0mn in December 2025 to bolster net international reserves (USD 8.4bn) and Ghana’s capacity to meet its USD 1.4bn Eurobond obligation in 2026.

 

• The upcoming 2026 budget will target to stay within the 1.5% primary surplus stipulated in the FRA: Ghana maintained a primary surplus of 1.1% of GDP in the first eight months of 2025, and the IMF expects the authorities to meet the 1.5% FY2025 target. This will mark the first effective compliance with the Fiscal Responsibility Act (FRA) since 2018. The Fund also anticipates another 1.5% primary surplus in 2026 (in line with the FRA), signalling confidence in Ghana’s renewed fiscal discipline despite cautious markets over post-IMF commitments. We believe the authorities have demonstrated credible policy intent to stay within fiscal limits next year. However, persistent revenue shortfalls and rising spending pressures will test the authorities’ capacity to sustain fiscal credibility beyond the IMF programme.