In brief
- Data Monetisation Continues to Underpin Revenue Growth: MTNGH delivered another strong revenue performance in 1H2026, with service revenue increasing 32.3% y/y to GHS15.0bn, driven primarily by sustained momentum in data, fintech and digital services. Data revenue remained the standout contributor, rising 47.1% y/y and accounting for nearly 60% of service revenue, supported by continued growth in active users and data consumption. MoMo also recorded healthy growth, while digital services nearly doubled, reinforcing the group’s success in monetising its expanding digital ecosystem and positioning these structural growth drivers to sustain long-term earnings growth.
- Operating Leverage Drives Earnings Growth Despite FX Risks: Strong revenue growth, subdued inflation and disciplined cost management translated into EBITDA growth of 39.8% y/y, with margins expanding 3.4pp to 61.8%, while profit after tax rose 43.3% y/y to GHS5.1bn, exceeding our expectations. Lower capex intensity further supported profitability, allowing the Board to increase shareholder returns through its new quarterly dividend structure. While the results highlight improving operating leverage and structurally stronger earnings quality, continued cedi depreciation remains the key risk to margins through its potential impact on operating and capital expenditure.
- Structural Growth Drivers to Sustain Revenue Momentum: We expect MTNGH to sustain service revenue growth in the mid to high 30% range over 2H2026, supported by resilient data demand, continued MoMo penetration and a favourable macro backdrop. Management’s focus is shifting towards value extraction through higher ARPU, deeper ecosystem integration and increased customer engagement, while MoMo continues to strengthen its position as a scalable financial ecosystem.
- Higher Investment to Moderate Margin Expansion: We expect margin expansion to moderate as management ramps up investment, with GHS4.9bn in planned capex over the coming quarters. Nonetheless, EBITDA margins should remain above 55%, supported by scale efficiencies and disciplined cost management. Overall, we believe MTNGH’s long-term outlook remains favourable, with sustained ARPU growth, margin discipline and capital efficiency expected to underpin durable shareholder returns.