In brief
- Ghana’s short-term interest rates have collapsed, but this relief comes with a catch. With the policy rate at 25% and Treasury bill auctions clearing at 10–11%, investors enjoy liquidity but very little real income, given inflation at 11.5%. Per our analysis, real returns at the front end remain negative.
- History offers a guide. Each time 91-day yields dropped sharply—by about 1,000 basis points in six months—it typically took nine months for rates to re-align with their 12-month average. The lesson: duration adds should be paced, not rushed.
- The cedi’s earlier rally has stalled, making hedged carry attractive but leaving unhedged investors vulnerable to FX moves. The smart play now is to stay liquid, lean into the 2–5 year belly, and use swaps to smooth the 2027–2028 maturity bulges. For pension funds, this is the moment to prepare portfolios for concentration risks.
- Ghana’s rates market is evolving from a liquidity story to a credibility story. The easy trade in T-bills is gone; what matters now is whether fiscal anchors and IMF discipline restore enough trust for investors to re-engage.
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