In brief
- Market Leadership and Scale Advantage: MTNGH’s dominant market share, extensive 4G coverage, and strong spectrum position enable it to capture data-driven growth while defending share across voice and fintech. Data remains the primary growth engine, supported by rising smartphone use and digital adoption.
- Structural Demand Tailwinds: Easing inflation, stable macro conditions, and a young, tech-savvy population are driving higher spending on connectivity and mobile money. MoMo remains a major earnings pillar, benefiting from interoperability, removal of the e-levy, and expanding partnerships that reinforce its dominance.
- Disciplined CAPEX and Execution: Targeted investments in 4G, fibre, and digital infrastructure have enhanced network quality, monetisation, and ARPU growth. Continued CAPEX discipline will sustain scalability, support MoMo expansion ahead of its spin-off, and underpin strong free cash flow and dividends
Rating Summary:
We reinitiate coverage on Scancom PLC (MTNGH) with a revised ACCUMULATE rating and a fair value estimate of GHS 4.72 per share, implying an 12.5% upside from the current price. This compares with our HY2025 fair value of GHS 4.50, which indicated a 26.1% upside. With the reduced upside and year-end approaching, we adopt a more measured stance. MTNGH remains Ghana’s telecom leader with dominant positions in voice, MoMo, and data, supported by strong cash flows, extensive infrastructure, and disciplined execution. We see sustained medium-term growth driven by data monetisation and fintech expansion, with ARPU and MoMo revenues expected to post CAGRs of 43.1% and 37.1%, respectively.
Our investment case rests on MTNGH’s entrenched market position and exposure to Ghana’s favourable macro and demographic trends. Data, already accounting for 53.6% of service revenue as of 9M2025, will anchor growth beyond the MoMo spin-off, supported by disciplined capex and scale advantages that strengthen profitability resilience. Our blended valuation approach, weighted 70% toward intrinsic models (DDM and FCFF) and 30% toward relative valuation (P/B and EV/EBITDA), yields a fair value of GHS 4.71 based on a 15.56% risk-free rate, 21.5% cost of equity, and 4.5% terminal growth. Key risks include regulatory pressure from SMP restrictions, execution challenges tied to the MoMo carve-out, slower data adoption, and potential Group-level portfolio changes that could affect the Ghana operation.
We reinitiate coverage on Scancom PLC (MTNGH) with a revised ACCUMULATE rating and a fair value estimate of GHS 4.72 per share, implying an 12.5% upside from the current price. This compares with our HY2025 fair value of GHS 4.50, which indicated a 26.1% upside. With the reduced upside and year-end approaching, we adopt a more measured stance. MTNGH remains Ghana’s telecom leader with dominant positions in voice, MoMo, and data, supported by strong cash flows, extensive infrastructure, and disciplined execution. We see sustained medium-term growth driven by data monetisation and fintech expansion, with ARPU and MoMo revenues expected to post CAGRs of 43.1% and 37.1%, respectively.
Our investment case rests on MTNGH’s entrenched market position and exposure to Ghana’s favourable macro and demographic trends. Data, already accounting for 53.6% of service revenue as of 9M2025, will anchor growth beyond the MoMo spin-off, supported by disciplined capex and scale advantages that strengthen profitability resilience. Our blended valuation approach, weighted 70% toward intrinsic models (DDM and FCFF) and 30% toward relative valuation (P/B and EV/EBITDA), yields a fair value of GHS 4.71 based on a 15.56% risk-free rate, 21.5% cost of equity, and 4.5% terminal growth. Key risks include regulatory pressure from SMP restrictions, execution challenges tied to the MoMo carve-out, slower data adoption, and potential Group-level portfolio changes that could affect the Ghana operation.
Investment Case
MTN Ghana’s investment case rests on its dominant market position, structural growth drivers, and disciplined execution. Its unmatched scale, extensive 4G coverage, and strong spectrum portfolio underpin sustained leadership across data and fintech, with data remaining the key earnings engine. A young, digital-first population, improving macro conditions, and expanding mobile money adoption provide durable demand momentum. Meanwhile, prudent and targeted CAPEX continues to enhance network quality, monetisation, and free cash flow generation, reinforcing MTN Ghana’s ability to deliver scalable growth, strong dividends, and long-term value creation
Key risks
- MTN Ghana’s strong market position, earnings resilience, and solid cash generation support its valuation, but regulatory and fiscal pressures remain key risks. The company’s SMP status limits pricing flexibility through strict oversight on tariffs and promotions, which could weigh on margins and agility. Additionally, slower data monetisation, weaker digital uptake, or renewed macro instability could further constrain valuation performance.
Valuation: ACCUMULATE
- Our ACCUMULATE rating is based on our weighted average fair value of GHS 4.72 per share, implying an 12.5% upside. This is derived from a blend of valuation methodologies which are the dividend discount model (DDM), free cash flow to Equity (FCFF), and comparable multiples (P/B and EV/EBITDA). Our rating reflects the near-term upside and our constructive medium-term view, which is underpinned by strong fundamentals, strategic execution, and earnings momentum.
- MTNGH is trading at a TTM P/E of 8.3x and P/B of 4.7x. Given the current market price, we believe most of the near-term upside has been priced in, though MTNGH’s strong growth trajectory and solid fundamentals still justify a medium-term accumulation stance.