GhanaKenyaNigeriaPan-Africa

22 April 2024

IC The Week Ahead

In brief

Ghana

  • The GSE-CI increased by 1.8% w/w to settle at 3,504.7 points bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 11.95% and 4.47% respectively. The index’s upswing was underpinned by gains in  Ghana Commercial Bank , Access Bank Ghana, Scancom Plc  and Total Petroleum Ghana.
  • Aggregate market turnover upsurged by 280.0% w/w to USD 2.9mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 98.8% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a  4 : 0 ratio.  Ghana Commercial Bank (+8.8% w/w | GHS 4.20) led the gainers’ chart, while  no laggard was recorded for the period.
  • The Ministry of Finance has confirmed that ongoing discussions on debt restructuring with creditors have not reached an impasse. It clarified that an interim agreement has been achieved between Ghana and bondholders but adjustments are needed to meet IMF debt sustainability goals. Ghana aims to trim external debt repayments and interest expenses by US$10.5bn between 2023 and 2026. On the bilateral front, the Ghanaian authorities expect a draft Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) by May 2024 on the restructuring of its USD 5.4bn bilateral debt to pave the way for IMF Board approval of the second review and third tranche disbursement of USD 360mn by end June 2024.

    Nigeria

  • The NGX-ASI declined by 2.7% w/w last week to settle at 99,539.8 points, bringing the year-to-date returns to 33.1% and 30-day loses to 2.5% . The downward movement in the index was underpinned by losses in mid-to-large caps.
  • Aggregate market turnover surged by 8.9% w/w to USD 29.0mn, with Zenith Bank Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 17.3% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured decliners with 78% ratio. Morison Industries Plc (+45.3% w/w | NGN 3.7) led the gainers’ chart, while   Meristem Value ETF (-26.3% w/w | NGN 445.5) was the worst laggard.
  • Nigeria’s annual inflation surged to 33.2% y/y, the highest since March 1996, up from 31.7% in the previous month. The significant rise in inflation was primarily due to the sharp depreciation of the local currency and the removal of fuel subsidies. Food inflation, which comprises a substantial portion of Nigeria’s inflation index, continued its upward trend, reaching 40% from 37.9% in the preceding month.

    Kenya

  • The NSE-ASI declined by 3.6% w/w to settle at 106.6 points bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 15.7% and 11.6% respectively. The bearish movement in the index was due to losses in mid-to-large caps.
  • Aggregate market turnover increased by 16.2% w/w to USD 12.0mn, with Safaricom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 30.7% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured decliners with a 59% ratio. TPS Eastern Africa Ltd (+27.7% w/w | KES 20.1) led the gainers’ chart, while  Sanlam Kenya Plc (-12.8% w/w | KES 6.0) was the worst laggard.
  • In the fixed income market, turnover in the domestic secondary bond market surged by 56.2% w/w. Additionally, yields on Kenya’s Eurobonds rose by an average of 9.0bps in the international market. On the macro front, the Kenyan authorities and IMF staff continued the 7th review of the ongoing EFF/ECF programme at the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings with the objective to secure a Staff-Level Agreement (SLA) in the near-term and IMF Board consideration for a potential USD 1.0bn disbursement.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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