Ghana

• The GSE-CI inched up by 0.6% w/w replicating the previous week’s gain to settle at 6,248.8 points last week, bringing the year-to-date return to 27.8% and 30-day loss to 6.7%. The index advance was underpinned by gains in Total Petroleum Ghana, GCB Bank Plc, Ecobank Ghana, Standard Chartered Bank Ghana, Societe Generale Ghana, Calbank Plc and SIC Insurance Co.
• Aggregate market turnover declined by 8.5% w/w to USD 1.8mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 75.8% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 7:3 ratio. Total Petroleum Ghana(+10.0% w/w | GHS 27.50) led the gainers’ chart, while  Fan Milk Plc (-1.2% w/w | GHS 4.10) was the worst laggard.
• We observe renewed buying interest in MTN Ghana (MTNGH), Societe Generale Ghana (SOGEGH), and Ghana Oil Company (GOIL), and anticipate this momentum could support price movements in the coming week. In the case of SOGEGH, the demand appears driven by investors positioning ahead of the stock’s ex-dividend date set for today, 30 June 2025, with a declared dividend of GHS 0.34 per share. Additionally, we expect overall market activity to pick up in the near term, as investor sentiment strengthens in anticipation of 1H2025 earnings releases across the bourse.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI increased by 1.6% w/w to settle at 119,995.8 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 16.6% and 9.4% respectively. The bullish movement in the index was underpinned by gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover declined by 8.7% w/w to USD 60.9mn, with Zenith Bank Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 13.6% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 74% ratio. Neimeth International Pharmaceutical (+60.5% w/w | NGN 5.9) led the gainers’ chart, while Associated Bus Co Plc (-9.3% w/w | NGN 2.5) was the worst laggard.
• President Bola Tinubu signed into law four key finance bills, marking a significant step in Nigeria’s ongoing fiscal reform agenda. The newly enacted legislation comprising the Nigeria Tax Act, Tax Administration Act, Nigeria Revenue Service Act, and the Joint Revenue Board Act is designed to overhaul the country’s tax framework. According to the government, the reforms aim to streamline tax administration, ease the compliance burden on select individuals and businesses, and enhance overall revenue efficiency. By modernizing tax processes and improving coordination across agencies, we expect the new laws to bolster domestic revenue mobilization and ease Nigeria’s over-reliance on oil revenue.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI increased by 4.6% w/w to settle at 152.5 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 23.5% and 13.3% respectively. The upward movement in the index was due to gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover plunged by 32.3% w/w to USD 12.6mn, with Safaricom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 32.7% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with an 82% ratio. Kenya Power & Lighting Ltd (+31.6% w/w | KES 11.4) led the gainers’ chart, while  Transcentury Ltd (-36.6% w/w | KES 0.7) was the worst laggard.
• President William Ruto has signed into law three pivotal bills, the Finance Bill 2025, Appropriations Bill 2025, and Supplementary Appropriation Bill 2025, cementing Kenya’s fiscal framework for the 2025/2026 financial year. These laws outline an ambitious KES 4.29 trillion budget, Kenya’s largest ever, aimed at bolstering local manufacturing, youth empowerment, and key social sectors under the Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda (BETA). The Finance Bill introduces sweeping tax amendments, including caps on loss carryforwards, changes to VAT, and an expanded digital economy tax, to fund a projected KES 3.32 trillion in revenues. In contrast to the deadly protests sparked by last year’s bill, this year’s calmer passage reflects strategic engagement with public sentiment. The Appropriations Bill authorizes KES 1.8 trillion in recurrent spending and KES 744 billion in development, while empowering MDAs to utilize KES 671 billion in self-collected funds. Despite a fiscal deficit of KES 923.2 billion, the government targets deficit reduction and debt sustainability through fiscal consolidation, supported by borrowing and administrative reforms setting a cautious but assertive tone for Kenya’s economic outlook.