Ghana

• The GSE-CI increased by 1.2% w/w to settle at 6,427.9 points last week, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 31.5% and 6.4% respectively. The index advance was underpinned by gains in Total Petroleum Ghana,  Access Bank Ghana, Republic Bank Ghana Plc, Ghana Oil Company, Ecobank Ghana and Scancom Plc
• Aggregate market turnover plunged by 48.4% w/w to USD 1.2mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 52.1% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 6:1 ratio. Total Petroleum Ghana(+9.9% w/w | GHS 33.25) led the gainers’ chart, while GCB Bank Plc(-4.3% w/w | GHS 9.47) was the sole laggard.
• Investor sentiment across selected equities on the Ghana Stock Exchange reflects a mixed outlook for the coming week. CalBank Plc continues to face dominant sell-side pressure, prompting our expectation of a price moderation towards GHS 0.52. Similarly, we observe more offers than bids in GCB Bank Plc with a possibility for its share price to ease towards GHS 9.45. Societe Generale Ghana Plc is also likely to face downward price adjustment to GHS 1.95, driven by high supply and weak buy-side interest. In contrast, TotalEnergies Marketing Ghana Plc is attracting strong buying interest ahead of its ex-dividend date on Wednesday, 16 July 2025, with investors positioning for the proposed final dividend of GHS 2.5665. Given the limited sell-side availability, we anticipate a price appreciation towards GHS 36.00 in the week ahead.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI advanced by 4.3% w/w to settle at 126,151.0 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 22.6% and 12.6% respectively. The bullish movement in the index was underpinned by gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover declined by 1.9% w/w to USD 66.0mn, with Access Holdings Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 13.5% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with an 83% ratio. FTN Cocoa Processors Plc (+60.6% w/w | NGN 7.5) led the gainers’ chart, while Legend Internet Plc (-12.5% w/w | NGN 7.0) was the worst laggard.
• In a move aimed at bolstering capital resilience across Nigeria’s banking sector, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a temporary lifting of the regulatory ceiling on the recognition of Additional Tier 1 (AT1) capital in the calculation of banks’ Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR). The new directive, which takes effect from 30 June 2025, will remain applicable until 31 March 2026. This interim measure forms part of a broader transition strategy by the CBN to unwind the regulatory forbearance framework introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the regulator, the revised treatment of AT1 capital is intended to give banks more flexibility in managing their capital positions during this transitional window without compromising regulatory discipline or long-term capital planning.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI declined by 1.3% w/w to settle at 159.1 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 28.8% and 18.5% respectively. The downward movement in the index was due to losses in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover slumped by 45.3% w/w to USD 15.6mn, with Safaricom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 42.3% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 54% ratio. Kapchorua Tea Co (+14.4% w/w | KES 321.5) led the gainers’ chart, while Sameer Africa Plc (-12.0% w/w | KES 5.4) was the worst laggard.
• The Kenya Revenue Authority (KRA) exceeded its revenue target for the 2024/2025 fiscal year by 0.6%, collecting KSh 2.571 trillion, a 6.8% year-on-year increase. This performance sets a cautiously optimistic tone for Kenya’s post-IMF FY2026 fiscal outlook. The improved outturn reflects underlying economic resilience, supported by real GDP growth of 4.7%, with key contributions from agriculture, forestry and fishing, financial and insurance services, transportation and storage, and real estate. In addition, macroeconomic conditions were broadly supportive, with headline inflation easing to an average of 3.6% in FY2024/25, down from 6.3% in the previous fiscal year, indicating a real growth of 3.2% in Kenya’s revenue outturn in FY2024/25.