Ghana

• The GSE-CI lost momentum, slipping 0.9% w/w to settle at 7,346.6 points last week, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 50.3% and 14.1% respectively. The index downturn was underpinned by losses in  Ecobank Transnational Inc. Calbank Plc and the blue chip stock, Scancom Plc.
• Aggregate market turnover plunged by 33.3% w/w to USD 4.4mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 96.5% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 5:3 ratio. Clydestone Ghana (+10.0% w/w | GHS 0.11) led the gainers’ chart, while Ecobank Transnational Inc. (-2.5% w/w | GHS 0.78) was the worst laggard.
• We anticipate mixed performance across the equities market in the coming week, with a tilt towards price moderation in select counters. We expect Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI) to face sustained selling pressure, which could drive its share price lower towards GHS 0.74. Similarly, Guinness Ghana Breweries (GGBL) is likely to edge down to around GHS 5.46, while MTN Ghana (MTNGH) may also trend lower towards GHS 3.85, reflecting softer buying interest following the expiry of its ex-dividend date. On the upside, we see potential for Enterprise Group Limited (EGL) to advance towards GHS 2.95, supported by stronger bids against limited sell offers. Overall, while near-term sentiment appears cautious, we believe the broadly positive earnings momentum across key sectors will provide a supportive backdrop for selective buying. This should sustain investor appetite in fundamentally strong counters despite intermittent bouts of profit-taking.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI declined by 2.5% w/w to settle at 141,004.1 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 37.0% and 11.3% respectively. The bearish movement in the index was underpinned by losses in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover plummeted by 22.7% w/w to USD 46.6mn, with Transcorp Power Ltd dominating trading activity, accounting for 12.3% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured decliners with a 56% ratio.  Austin Laz Co Plc (+20.8% w/w | NGN 2.9) led the gainers’ chart, while  Thomas Wyatt Nigeria Plc  (-18.9% w/w | NGN 3.0) was the worst laggard.
• Nigeria’s Pension Fund Administrators intensify calls for regulatory reform as Pension Fund Administrators (PFAs), with USD 17.0bn in assets under management, push to broaden investment guidelines to include alternative and unlisted assets such as infrastructure, private equity, and clean energy. The shift was underpinned by rising pressure on portfolio performance amid elevated inflation, currency volatility, and heavy concentration in fixed income, which still accounts for over 60% of pension assets. In our view, expanding the investable universe could enhance long-term returns, better match liabilities, and channel institutional capital into Nigeria’s infrastructure gap, though implementation risks and regulatory bottlenecks remain key watchpoints.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI inched up by 2.6% w/w to settle at 170.0points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 37.7% and 7.8 respectively. The upward movement in the index was due to gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover increased by 30.2% w/w to USD 22.4mn, with KCB Group Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 25.2% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 64% ratio. Eaagads Ltd (+50.7% w/w | KES 21.1) led the gainers’ chart, while Olympia Capital Holdings Ltd  (-23.2%w/w | KES 5.0) was the worst laggard.
• Kenya’s consideration to split Safaricom into three entities, telecoms, towers, and M-Pesa signals a structural shift that could unlock value from the government’s 35.0% stake and crystallize distinct valuations across segments. We believe a separation would sharpen operational efficiency, highlight M-Pesa’s fintech multiple, and potentially attract new pools of capital into the tower and payments businesses. That said, execution remains contingent on cabinet approval, while the near-complete Treasury tax audit, flagging a disputed USD 580.5mn obligation, introduces headline and regulatory risk. On balance, we see the breakup as valuation-accretive over the medium term, though sentiment will remain sensitive to clarity on the tax position and timing of the restructuring.