Ghana

• The GSE-CI sustained its rally, climbing 4.3% w/w to 8,120.3 points, with year-to-date and 30-day gains at 66.1% and 9.5%. The advance was broad-based, led by strong performances in Banking, Consumer and Telecom stocks, while Guinness Ghana was the main drag. Market turnover surged 105.7% w/w to USD 3.0mn, with Scancom accounting for 70.2% of activity. Market breadth remained positive at 12:2 in favour of gainers. Looking ahead, we expect further upside in BOPP, CalBank, Clydestone, Ecobank Ghana, Enterprise Group, Fan Milk, and MTN Ghana, while Guinness Ghana and Unilever Ghana may soften.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI edged higher by 0.2% w/w to 142,133.0 points, lifting year-to-date returns to 38.1% despite a 30-day loss of 1.8%. Market turnover rose 21.1% w/w to USD 59.4mn, led by Zenith Bank, which accounted for 24.2% of activity. Market breadth leaned negative, with decliners dominating at 61%. Lotus Capital Halal Fund topped the gainers, while Wema Bank was the worst laggard. Meanwhile, the MPC delivered its first rate cut in 18 months, lowering the MPR by 50bps to 27.0% alongside a narrower policy corridor and a reduction in the CRR for commercial banks. While these measures signal a cautious shift towards easing, we think risks from excess liquidity remain, suggesting policy will stay finely balanced in the near term.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI gained 2.5% w/w to 177.9 points, lifting year-to-date returns to 44.1% while trimming 30-day gains to 6.9%. Market turnover rose 3.8% w/w to USD 42.7mn, with KCB Group dominating activity at 54.1%. Market breadth leaned positive, with gainers accounting for 56% of traded stocks. Crown Paints Kenya led the gainers, while Standard Group was the worst laggard. Meanwhile, IMF staff are set to visit Kenya between 25 September and 9 October to begin discussions on a new programme following the expiry of the USD 3.6bn facility in April 2025. We expect negotiations to advance, providing fiscal space and anchoring policy credibility in the near term as the Kenyan authorities signalled appetite for a fresh IMF programme.