Ghana

• The GSE-CI increased by 1.6% w/w to settle at 6,349.6 points last week, bringing the year-to-date return to 29.9%, while the 30-day remained flat. The index advance was underpinned by gains in Total Petroleum Ghana,  Access Bank Ghana,  Republic Bank Ghana Plc and Scancom Plc
• Aggregate market turnover surged by 33.2% w/w to USD 2.4mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 69.3% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 4:1 ratio. Total Petroleum Ghana(+10.0% w/w | GHS 30.25) led the gainers’ chart, while GCB Bank Plc(-1.0% w/w | GHS 9.90) was the sole laggard.
• Standard Chartered Bank Ghana (SCB) is scheduled to trade ex-dividend on 09 July 2025, with a declared dividend of GHS 1.6704 per share. We anticipate heightened investor activity in the lead-up to the cut-off date, as market participants position to qualify for the dividend. This could provide near-term price support, driven by dividend-seeking buyers and sellers pricing in the dividend value. Meanwhile, Guinness Ghana Breweries PLC (GGB PLC) completed its ownership transition, with Castel Group formally assuming majority control and operational leadership as of 03 July 2025. Castel’s acquisition of Diageo’s 80.4% stake, following successful regulatory clearance signals a strategic move to reinforce the Guinness brand’s growth potential and sustain a strong, long-term footprint in Ghana’s competitive beverage market. Looking ahead, we expect trading activity to be supported by investors cherry-picking stocks ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI inched up by 0.8% w/w to settle at 120,990.3 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 17.6% and 10.0% respectively. The bullish movement in the index was underpinned by gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover increased by 9.6% w/w to USD 67.4mn, with Oando Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 20.8% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 78% ratio. Vetiva S&P Nigerian Sov Bond (+67.1% w/w | NGN 518.0) led the gainers’ chart, while  Greenwich Alpha ETF Fund (-19.0% w/w | NGN 223.7) was the worst laggard.
• The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its 2025 Article IV Consultation report, affirmed its support for the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) continued monetary tightening, recognizing the tight policy stance as an essential lever for curbing inflation and maintaining macroeconomic balance. The Fund acknowledged that current disinflation efforts are on the right track and recommended that the CBN sustain this policy stance until inflation expectations are fully stabilized. While the IMF commended the overall direction of Nigeria’s monetary policy framework, it also emphasized the need for complementary fiscal discipline and deeper structural reforms to reinforce the disinflation process and promote long-term economic resilience.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI increased by 5.7% w/w to settle at 161.2 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 30.5% and 21.8% respectively. The upward movement in the index was due to gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover spiked by 127.2% w/w to USD 28.5mn, with KCB Group Plc  dominating trading activity, accounting for 38.2% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with an 83% ratio. Sameer Africa Plc (+48.8% w/w | KES 6.2) led the gainers’ chart, while Kakuzi (-8.7% w/w | KES 365.3) was the worst laggard.
• Kenya’s economy expanded by 4.9% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, maintaining the same growth rate recorded in the corresponding period of 2024. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), the steady expansion was supported by robust activity in key sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing, both of which continue to anchor economic performance. Despite the stable headline growth, underlying sectoral trends point to a moderation in momentum across several service sectors. Growth in accommodation and food services decelerated markedly to 4.1% in 1Q2025, compared to a sharp 38.1% rebound in the same quarter of 2024. Similarly, the information and communication sector registered a 5.8% y/y increase, down from 9.2% in the prior year, while financial and insurance services saw a softening to 5.1% y/y from 9.6%. We believe the softening growth momentum will keep the Central Bank of Kenya on a dovish path while the resultant decline in domestic interest rates sustains the appeal of stock market.