Ghana

• The GSE-CI regained its upward momentum, edging up by 4.5% w/w to settle at 6,673.1 points last week, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 36.5% and 7.1% respectively. The index upturn was underpinned by gains in Fan Milk Plc, Republic Bank Ghana Plc, Ghana Oil Company, Ecobank Ghana and the blue chip stock, Scancom Plc.
• Aggregate market turnover surged by 241.2% w/w to USD 11.6mn, with Scancom Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 83.9% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 5:2 ratio. ScancomPlc(+9.1% w/w | GHS 3.25) led the gainers’ chart, while  Societe Generale Ghana (-4.4% w/w | GHS 1.97) was the worst laggard.
• Fan Milk Plc (FML) posted a 6.3% y/y rise in net profit to GHS 26.0mn for 1H2025, driven by a 58.4% surge in revenue to GHS 506.6mn and a 72.7% drop in finance costs to GHS 2.6mn. The strong revenue growth was supported by the company’s strategic push in the outdoor business segment. However, margins contracted due to elevated input costs, which rose 67.6% y/y to GHS 339.0mn, including GHS 28.0mn in revaluation losses, and operating expenses, which climbed 44.2% y/y to GHS 131.5mn. Administrative expenses jumped 76.4% y/y to GHS 47.0mn, while sales and distribution costs rose 38.8% y/y to GHS 70.8mn, partly due to legacy contracts set at higher FX and inflation levels. Consequently, gross margin fell 3.7pp to 33.1%, operating margin dropped 1.7pp to 7.2%, and net margin declined 2.5pp to 5.1%. With easing inflation and a stable cedi, we expect FML to benefit from management’s focus on cost controls to unlock stronger bottom-line growth in the coming quarters.   In the week ahead, we expect the ongoing earnings season to influence trade decisions as investors seek out dividend-paying and growth stocks to offset the negative impact of fixed income yield compression on their investment portfolios.

Nigeria

• The NGX-ASI advanced by 2.2% w/w to settle at 134,452.9 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 30.6% and 16.7% respectively. The bullish movement in the index was underpinned by gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover decreased by 29.6% w/w to USD 68.4mn, with Access Holdings Plc dominating trading activity, accounting for 9.8% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 61% ratio.  Nigeria Enamelware Co Plc  (+32.7% w/w | NGN 27.0) led the gainers’ chart, while Secure Electronics Technology  (-24.0% w/w | NGN 0.9) was the worst laggard.
• The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.5% during its 301st MPC meeting on 22 July 2025, as all 12 members voted unanimously to sustain disinflation and manage price pressures. CBN Governor Dr. Olayemi Cardoso emphasized the need for a cautious approach amid persistent inflationary pressures and exchange rate volatility. The MPC also retained the asymmetric corridor at +500/-100 basis points, the Cash Reserve Ratio at 50.0% for Deposit Money Banks and 16.0% for Merchant Banks, and the liquidity ratio at 30.0%. The decision signals the Bank’s intent to balance inflation control with economic stability, while closely monitoring economic indicators before future policy shifts. Although market expectations were split ahead of the meeting (IC Insights: “HOLD”), the hold decision reflects concerns over sluggish growth and the need to assess current measures. The CBN reaffirmed its commitment to price stability and gradual economic recovery amid a challenging macroeconomic environment.

Kenya

• The NSE-ASI inched up by 1.6% w/w to settle at 160.5 points, bringing the year-to-date and 30-day returns to 30.0% and 11.0% respectively. The upward movement in the index was due to gains in mid-to-large caps.
• Aggregate market turnover increased by 10.1% w/w to USD 19.7mn, with KCB Group Plc  dominating trading activity, accounting for 44.1% of the total value traded. Market breadth favoured gainers with a 68% ratio. Sameer Africa Plc (+18.4% w/w | KES 5.9) led the gainers’ chart, while   Express Kenya Ltd  (-7.5 w/w | KES 4.2) was the worst laggard.
• Fitch Ratings affirmed Kenya’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency IDR at ‘B-’ with a Stable Outlook, citing strong growth prospects but warning of high debt, weak governance, and fiscal slippage. FX reserves rose to USD 11.1bn after early Eurobond repayment but are expected to fall to USD 10.2bn as the current account deficit widens. The FY26 budget deficit is projected at 5.2% of GDP amid rising debt service costs and weak revenue performance. Uncertainty over IMF and World Bank funding could push Kenya towards costly commercial borrowing, lifting interest-to-revenue ratios to 33.0% in FY26. Debt is forecast to ease slightly to 64.0% of GDP, but remains above peers, while pending bills highlight persistent public finance weaknesses. Fitch expects 4.9% real GDP growth and stable inflation in 2025, though external financing risks and political pressures weigh on the outlook.