IC Fixed Income and Currency Guide

In brief

GHANA

Fixed Income:
T-bill demand softened as liquidity drain and compressed yields weigh on appetite. Demand for Ghanaian T-bills weakened in September 2026 as the August DDEP coupon liquidity faded and yields compressed. Investors rotated into shorter-dated bonds offering better returns. We estimate October T-bill maturities to fall by 30.7% month-on-month to GHS 12.34bn, easing the rollover pressure. However, softer demand and new COCOBOD issuance will limit yield declines. For credit instruments, we estimate the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) to fall by 14bps to 10.04% in October 2026.

Currency:

Cedi retreats as emerging seasonal import demand test resilience. The Ghanaian Cedi weakened by 3.9% month-on-month in September 2026 (YTD: -10.5%) as lower BOG FX sale of USD 500mn complemented by USD 701.3mn from GOLDBOD coincided with stronger seasonal import demand and elevated fuel costs. We expect near-term pressure to persist, but believe that import demand will ease towards year-end, supporting greater Cedi stability. In October 2026, GOLDBOD projects to sell USD 1.0bn directly to banks (out of target USD 1.5bn inflow). We now expect the USDGHS between 11.5 – 12.2 on interbank market by end-2026.

KENYA

Fixed Income:
Carry keeps investor appetite resilient. Kenya’s T-bill demand weakened in September, although bids remained above maturities and yields were broadly stable. The 91-day tenor attracted over half of total bids, while stable USDKES continued to support attractive carry. The Treasury allotments remained lower than T-bill maturities, reflecting continued efforts to contain domestic funding costs

Currency:
Shilling stability masks external financing risks. The Kenyan shilling remained broadly stable in September 2026, preserving its low volatility carry appeal. However, FX reserve accumulation increasingly reflects sovereign borrowing and divestiture rather than trade and remittance inflows. We therefore see external financing access as a key watchpoint ahead of the August 2027 elections.

NIGERIA

Fixed Income:
Demand surge and policy rate cut drive yield compression. Nigerian T-bill demand surged in September, overwhelming the higher auction target and enabling the Treasury to cut yields. The surprise policy rate cut also pulled the curve lower. We expect election-related spending to sustain liquidity and cap T-bill and OMO yields, barring renewed inflation.

Currency:
Naira strengthens: Carry appeal offsets election risk. The Nigerian naira gained 0.5% month-on-month in September, extending its YTD appreciation to 8.7%, supported by stronger reserves, higher oil prices and elevated real rates. However, we think the MPC’s effective 200bps rate cut could weaken portfolio flows as election-related risks intensify ahead of the January 2027 polls.

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