IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: Demand for Ghanaian T-bills softened for a second month in September as unattractive yields triggered partial redemptions and yield-seeking shifts. Notwithstanding a 21.9% m/m decline in upcoming maturities, we note that average weekly demand is lower than required bid size to cover the upcoming maturities, posing upside risk to yields. However, we expect single-digit inflation and expectation of lower policy rate to cap the upside 

  
   Currency
  The Cedi depreciated by 5.8% in September but at a slower pace from mid-month as the BOG boosted FX sales to USD 1.0bn (+40.4%), albeit irregularly. The BOG also tightened banks’ NOP limits to 0% and -10%, squeezing interbank liquidity with a potential to limit banks’ FX trading capacity. We expect the USDGHS to trade range-bound with an upside bias as demand pressure remain elevated.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income: Kenyan T-bills auction attracted strong demand at the front and back-ends but softer appetite in the mid-tenor, with bids comfortably overshooting the monthly target and maturities, leaving net issuance positive. Given unallotted demand still in the market and the MPC likely to stay dovish at the October meeting, we believe yield pressures remain skewed to the downside.

  Currency

  The Kenyan Shilling held steady at 129.2/USD in September 2025, extending its year-long detachment from market forces, as interbank turnover fell 24.7% m/m and reserves stayed flat at USD 10.9bn. We expect this managed stability to persist in the near term, offering offshore portfolios a cushion against FX volatility.

 

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Nigerian T-bills surged in September (+241% m/m) as both local and offshore players positioned for rate cuts amid continued disinflation. The MPC cut the policy rate by 50bps to 27.0%, citing easing inflation, stable FX, and healthy reserves but introduced a 75% CRR on non-TSA deposits from the public sector. 

  Currency

  The Naira rallied in September, gaining 6.7% m/m to 1,441/USD, as stronger oil earnings and portfolio inflows into high-yield debt drove demand ahead of an expected MPC cut. With crude output rising to 1.71mbpd and real policy rates still positive, we expect the Naira to hold firm, supported by healthy FX reserves.