IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: Investor appetite for Ghanaian T-bills weakened in August 2025, undermining auction performance as the BOG aligned OMO yields with the policy rate, draining money market liquidity. T-bill yields fell by an average of 85bps while bonds rose 113bps, steepening the curve. We expect T-bill rates to remain depressed in the month ahead although money market liquidity will remain tight.

  
   Currency
  The cedi depreciated sharply in August to 11.7/USD on tight FX liquidity, with retail losses to 12.4/USD amplified by BOG’s curb on foreign currency cash withdrawals which were not backed by equivalent foreign currency cash deposits. We expect further interbank weakness toward our fair value of 12.2/USD ±0.5 as market correction continues amid tight FX supply and elevated FX demand.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income: Kenyan T-bill demand softened again in August on lower yields and anchored inflation, while investors rotated into duration, driving 3.6x oversubscription of the 2033 and 2041 bonds. The Treasury leveraged this shift to lengthen its debt maturity profile.

  Currency

  The Kenyan shilling was stable in August, anchored by rising reserves, steady remittances, and contained inflation. We expect persistent KES stability as the CBK expects financial inflows to cover a projected modest 1.5% of GDP current account deficit in FY2025.

 

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Nigerian T-bills softened in August, with short-end under-subscription and a disjointed bear steepening of the curve as investors shifted to bonds, positioning for lower rates after inflation fell for a fourth month to 21.9% in July.

  Currency

  The naira held stable in August (-0.2% m/m), underpinned by FX reforms, backlog clearance, and tight liquidity, and looks set to remain anchored under the CBN’s hawkish stance.