IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Ghanaian T-bills rebounded in June 2025, rising 3.8% m/m to GHS 23.25bn, due to higher rollover maturities, after a 3-month decline. However, bids still fell 12.5%, short of the GHS 26.56bn target. The Treasury maintained yield control by rejecting GHS 1.8bn in bids, allotting GHS 21.40bn. For 1H2025, our estimates showed that the Treasury raised GHS 154.86bn, underperforming its target by GHS 3.2bn as the sharp fall in yields to the mid-teens triggered large under-subscriptions since 24 March 2025. The IC Government Bond Index rose 2.85pts to 91.7pts, pushing down our estimated weighted bond yield to 20.1% with some bonds trading below 20.0%. We believe this reflects improving market conditions and positive prospects for the Treasury’s return to bond issuance in late-2025.

  
   Currency
  The Cedi closed June 2025 at 10.35/USD on the interbank market (-0.9% m/m) after a sharp correction-driven rally in the prior two months. Amidst a surge in FX demand from offshore investors, corporates, and local banks adjusting to the new currency-matched CRR rules, the BOG increased FX supply by 84.4% m/m to USD 1.7bn to anchor the USDGHS pair, albeit changing from 2-day to 7-day forward sale and tapering the volumes in the final 2-weeks. While we believe the near-term outlook remains stable, the wide spread between the interbank and forex bureau rates suggests tighter supply in the retail market, distorting pricing.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income: Demand for Kenyan T-bills strengthened in June 2025, especially for the 364-day tenor, as investors sought to lock in higher yields amidst the continued decline in rates. We think the shift reflects a rebalancing strategy driven by inflation firmly below the CBK’s 5.0% target since June 2024. With our estimated real yields between 4.4% – 5.9% and competitive FX-adjusted returns, we believe Kenyan T-bills remain an attractive option for both local and non-resident investors.

  Currency

  The Kenyan Shilling remained stable at 129.17/USD in June 2025, showing resilience to global shocks amidst a weaker US Dollar. We attribute the KES stability to the robust FX reserves of USD 10.9bn (4.8 months import cover) and attractive risk-adjusted yields, reinforcing a positive outlook as the FY25/26 fiscal year begins this month.

 

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Nigerian T-bills surged 12.6% m/m to NGN 2.5trn in June 2025, overshooting the gross target by over 315.0%. Despite this, the Treasury cut its issuance target by 41.7% m/m to NGN 612.0bn to match maturities. Unlike in May 2025, where allotments exceeded targets, the June allotments matched the offer size, reinforcing a broad decline in yields across the T-bill curve.

  
  Currency

  The Naira strengthened across both official and parallel markets in June 2025, with rates converging below 1,600/USD as spreads narrowed sharply. This was driven by a 62.0% m/m surge in FX inflows to USD 5.96bn in May, largely from domestic sources, with momentum likely sustained into June. In our view, improved inflows and firmer oil prices supported market sentiment, although risks from oil price shocks remain.