In brief
- Real GDP growth expectedly weakened in 3Q2022, belatedly reflecting the impact of the price pressures experienced at the producer and consumer levels in 2022.
- Overall real GDP growth decelerated to 2.9% y/y in 3Q2022 from 6.5% in the same period 2021 while non-oil real GDP growth also nosedived to 3.6% from 8.2% in 3Q2021.
- The Cedi’s slump in 2022 propelled both producer and consumer price inflation rates to multi-year highs, weighing on business and consumer confidence and dragging down economic activity.
- The latest growth rate translates into an average real GDP growth of 3.5% in 9M2022 with potential for an annual growth rate of between 3.0% – 3.5% at FY2022. In the year ahead, we reiterate our FY2023 growth forecast of 2.7% (GOG: 2.8%) as the lagged effect of price pressures, higher taxes, and monetary squeeze provide a headwind to growth.
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