- Headline inflation churned out an unsurprising but dizzying surge to 50.3% year-on-year in November 2022 from 40.4% in October 2022.
- Inflation for food, energy and imported items remain the major drivers of domestic price pressures both on year-on-year and month-on-month bases.
- The recent decline in the prices of domestic petroleum products amidst a strong recovery of the Ghanaian Cedi could anchor an inflation peak in December 2022 or January 2023 with a potential disinflation from 1Q2023.
- Despite the expectation of a near-term peak, we maintain our upside view on the policy rate potentially terminating at 29.0%, implying a pre-emptive hike of up to 200bps in 1Q2023 to counter the potential inflation risk from the tax measures in the 2023 budget
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