In brief
- The implementation of Ghana’s 2022 budget faced significant headwinds from both weak revenue performance and lax expenditure management
- The finance minister, Ken Ofori-Atta, confirmed a debt exchange programme as the preferred form of debt restructuring in collaboration with relevant stakeholders including the Ghanaian public, investor community, and development partners
- Our assessment of the 2023 budget leaves us with little conviction about austerity without an IMF programme. Basically, the Ghanaian economy could be in a pickle, if the government fails to secure financial guarantees from its creditors to pave way for the much-anticipated IMF programme
- Based on the expected impact of the new taxes on private sector activity, we are broadly aligned with the government’s outlook on key macroeconomic indicators for FY2023
- The bears could remain rampant on the stock market while debt restructuring should force a downward shift in the Treasury yield curve
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