In brief
- Back in the band as disinflation continued in September 2025. Ghana’s annual headline inflation returned to the Bank of Ghana’s medium-term target band for the first time since August 2021, dropping sharply by 210bps to 9.4% y/y in September 2025. The decline outpaced our forecast drop to 9.6% and extended the linear disinflation observed through the first nine months of the year. Food inflation drove the disinflation narrative, plunging 380bps to 11.0% y/y as staples like cereals, vegetables, and tubers cooled on the back of government interventions and lower distribution costs. Non-food inflation also eased to 8.2% y/y, though a softer fall in transport prices highlighted emerging pressure from the Cedi’s recent depreciation.
- We still expect policy easing in November despite slight upside inflation risks. Looking ahead, we expect disinflation momentum to persist into 4Q2025, although the October print could face upside risks from the 1.14% electricity tariff hike and higher fuel prices linked to the weaker Cedi in 3Q2025. Nevertheless, we believe expectations are firmly anchored and we forecast inflation easing further to 9.2% y/y in October. The September outturn lifted the ex-post real policy rate to 12.1%, with our November forecast pointing as high as 13.5% real policy rate. This backdrop strengthens the case for another policy rate cut of 250 – 300bps at the November MPC meeting. However, we provisionally lean cautiously towards 250bps cut to 19.0% (subject to October inflation outturn) in light of the scheduled 1Q2026 major utility tariff hike.
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