In brief
- Structural fiscal reform takes hold: Strong 1H2026 performance reinforces confidence. Ghana’s 1H2026 fiscal results point to a durable shift from cyclical recovery to structural consolidation. Strong expenditure discipline, improving debt metrics and continued reform momentum kept fiscal targets on track, while strategic support for GOLDBOD and IMF-backed reforms strengthen the outlook for continued macroeconomic and exchange rate stability.
- Revenue momentum builds as reforms begin to narrow the gap. Revenue shortfalls persisted, but this time, marginally below target (-1.0% in 1H2026 vs -3.3% in 1H2025) as underlying trends improved. We observed strong outturns from mineral royalties and energy levies which reflected the impact of recent reforms and the GHS 1.0/litre levy introduced in mid-2025. Looking ahead, we expect the forthcoming VAT compliance measures to strengthen collections while ongoing custom reforms and resilient fuel demand support the near-term revenue outlook. We therefore raise our FY2026 revenue forecast by 2.2% to GHS 266.7bn (GOG target: GHS 268.1bn), anticipating continued momentum in 2H2026.
- Spending discipline deepens while reforms deliver sustainable fiscal savings. Expenditure controls are becoming firmly embedded in Ghana’s fiscal framework, keeping spending nearly 20% below budget without compromising growth. We noticed that payroll reforms, lower debt servicing costs and tighter procurement controls generated meaningful savings, while priority infrastructure spending was largely preserved, reinforcing our confidence in Ghana’s structural fiscal consolidation.
- Stronger fiscal balances reinforce debt sustainability. The fiscal balances outperformed expectations in 1H2026, with a robust primary surplus reducing borrowing needs and supporting lower domestic yields. Although we expect contractor payments to widen the deficit in 2H2026, the strong first half performance strengthens our confidence that the authorities will achieve the FY2026 fiscal targets and reinforce debt sustainability. We thus trim our forecast FY2026 overall budget deficit (cash) by 0.4% of GDP to 4.0% of GDP, aligning with the authorities’ target.
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