Our views 

• Another positive step in meeting an IMF reform target: We recall that this intervention framework is a structural benchmark under the ongoing IMF programme, which was aimed for completion by end-September 2025. Despite the seemingly delayed completion, this sets the authorities favourably to comply with one more structural benchmark by the sixth and final IMF programme review in early 2026.
• Strengthening the policy anchor for smooth sailing post-IMF programme: From a strategic viewpoint, this new FX operation framework codifies the Bank of Ghana’s discretion under constraint intervention approach. We believe this is akin to the Inflation Targeting Framework which the monetary authorities have relied upon since 2007 to reduce the swings in inflation rate and anchor inflation expectations. We believe the BOG’s “discretion under constraint” approach to its FX market operation preserve flexibility of market interventions while institutionalising market discipline. We view this as a particularly crucial policy anchor as Ghana approaches the end of its IMF programme in 2026 when market perception of policy credibility will significantly influence exchange rate trend.
• Strong prospect for sustained near-term stability but medium-term outlook hinges on continued reserves accumulation and post-IMF fiscal discipline. We expect the BOG’s transparent, rule-based new FX operation framework to anchor market sentiment and reduce volatility, keeping the Cedi broadly stable below the USD 12.0 mark, possibly to late-2026. Over the medium term, we believe the framework’s credibility will hinge on sustained reserve inflows from gold and export surrender programmes amid heightened external debt service pressures between 2026 and 2030. The 2025 fiscal reforms, including a 45.0% ceiling on debt-to-GDP ratio by 2034 and a 1.5% of GDP annual primary fiscal surplus offer a credible base for optimism. However, post-IMF fiscal discipline, especially around the 2028 elections, remains the medium-term risk. Overall, we believe the shift to a predictable, rules-based FX market operations strengthens Ghana’s FX policy credibility and supports a more stable Cedi outlook.