Rating Summary: 
We maintain a “BUY” rating on MTN Ghana (MTNGH) with a fair value estimate of GHS 7.91 per share, implying a 37.6% upside. Our valuation incorporates a lower risk-free rate of 11.6%, down from 15.5% at 9M2025, reflecting declining yields on restructured domestic bonds. We applied a statistically robust beta and a 4.0% equity risk premium in our CAPM analysis. Additionally, we enhanced our relative valuation by recalibrating the peer group to ensure a more comparable and relevant benchmark set. Our conviction reflects MTNGH’s resilient earnings outlook, robust data-revenue trajectory, and cost discipline, which together support sustained profitability. In our view, MTNGH’s scale and network quality remain decisive advantages and continue to underpin market leadership across voice, data, and fintech. We expect data services (which currently account for more than half of service revenue) to anchor topline momentum post-MML separation. The structural drivers remain intact by way of a data-hungry demographic, rapid urbanisation, and rising smartphone penetration. Digital revenue is showing signs of its economic promise. Following the product sanitisation exercise conducted about 3 years ago, the segment has seen gradual y/y growth, and we remain optimistic about its potential. Fintech remains a near-term earnings driver. We expect MoMo to retain transactional scale and monetisation strength, even post-separation, through increased interoperability and deeper integration with merchant payments and savings products. Meanwhile, MTNGH’s strategic focus on platform expansion positions it to capitalise on evolving consumer and business needs. On capital allocation, execution discipline is critical. Sustained investment in network modernisation and rural expansion will preserve service quality and contain churn. The potential allocation of 5G spectrum later this year adds optionality, though returns will depend on pricing discipline and device penetration. Despite regulatory overhang and the ongoing activities for the structural separation of MML (with the merger of Mobile Money Limited with Mobile Money Fintech Limited and a Trust to hold the stake of minority shareholders currently underway), MTNGH’s robust fundamentals and consistent dividend payouts reinforce investor confidence. Overall, we perceive upside from ongoing digital adoption, operating leverage, and improving macro conditions. Our BUY rating reflects the medium-term value creation potential, even as our fair value estimate is anchored on near-term earnings performance.