Electricity Update:

• PURC to raise tariffs by 1.14% from Oct 1, 2025.
• Water tariffs unchanged.
• Inflation outlook improved: 12.4% vs. 20.7% in Q3.

• Minimal inflation effect — disinflation path intact.
• Businesses reliant on grid power face slight OPEX increases.
• Solar adopters (e.g., TOTALEnergies) gain resilience, while Fan Milk PLC continues to struggle with rising costs.

Energy Sector Highlights:

• Govt disbursed USD 682m (Jun–Sept 2025) to support fuel, IPPs & gas supply.
• ECG compliance with Cash Waterfall Mechanism improves liquidity.
• Stable power outlook supports GDP recovery.

Risks to Watch:

• FX under-recovery likely as market rates (~12.3/USD) exceed PURC’s assumption (11.97/USD).
• Inflation strength may cushion this risk.

Bottom Line:

Ghana’s modest tariff hike won’t derail disinflation.
Energy reforms and compliance support stable power & economic recovery — but FX pressures remain the key watchpoint.