IC Fixed Income and Currency Guide

In brief

GHANA

Fixed Income:
Yields edge higher as rollover pressure mounts. Ghana’s fixed income market remained mixed in June 2026, with strong demand but higher yields across both primary and secondary markets amid high rollover pressure. Although short-term refinancing mostly cleared below maturing rates and sustained the low-yield environment, we believe the recent upturn signals rising upside risk.

GRR Watch: For Credits, we expect a 57bps uptick in the Ghana Reference Rate (GRR) to 10.59% for July 2026 as banks likely shift to using the 20% CRR (vs 15% prior) while higher 91-day yield exerts further push.

Currency:

BOG intervention steadies the Cedi amid volatility. The Cedi swung sharply in June 2026, with Bank of Ghana intervention driving an early correction before the currency settled at 11.33/USD, a 3.6% m/m appreciation. Despite heavier-than-planned FX sales in June (USD 2.01bn), we expect the strong reserve buffer to contain sharper losses, although we foresee modest depreciation in July 2026.

KENYA

Fixed Income:
Strong demand persisted, but inflation keeps yields elevated. Investor demand for Kenyan T-bills strengthened for a second straight month in June 2026, but higher energy-driven inflation pushed yields up for the third consecutive month. With maturities set to fall sharply in July, we believe the Treasury may have room to taper yields if geopolitical tensions continue to cool.

Currency:
Strong reserves keep the Shilling steady. The Kenyan Shilling held flat in June 2026, with its slight YTD loss driven more by external shocks than domestic weakness. Despite a pick-up in inflation due to the Middle East war, strong FX reserves and higher domestic yields continue to provide a solid near-term buffer.

NIGERIA

Fixed Income:
Higher auction targets lift yields despite solid demand. Demand for Nigerian T-bills remained firm in June 2026, with bids covering the Treasury’s sharply higher target by 2.0x despite softer volumes. Yields rose across all tenors, reflecting persistent inflation concerns, though easing global energy prices could moderate pressure in the coming month.

Currency:
Stronger forex reserves cushion mild Naira weakness. The Naira weakened mildly by 0.3% in June 2026, a modest softening that we view as market-driven rather than fundamental weakness, as FX reserves rose to USD 51.4bn. While lower oil prices may soften export inflows, strong reserves should keep the currency broadly stable in the near term.

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