- GHANA
Fixed Income:
Yields find a floor as investor rotation reshapes demand: Investor demand for Ghanaian T-bills softened in March 2026 (-48.9% month-on-month) as banks shifted to the better-priced Open Market Operation (OMO) securities amidst lower post-MPC OMO yields. We believe yields have bottomed out, but expect only limited upside given the anchored inflation expectation despite energy price shocks.Treasury re-enters domestic bond market with debut post-DDEP bond. Ghana launched its maiden post-DDEP 7-year bond (Apr-2033) with initial price guidance (initial yield range within which to place bids) at 12.0% – 12.5%, below recent secondary levels and signalling the authorities quest to keep a lid on long-term yields. The offer closes today 01 April 2026, with settlement on 07 April.
- Currency:
Forex pressures resurface despite strong buffers. The Cedi fell 2.8% month-on-month in March 2026 as FX demand rebounded amid higher energy costs from Middle East tensions, leaving ≃60% of FX demand unmet. Despite solid reserves (USD 14.5bn | 5.8 months import cover), we foresee transitory FX risks from geopolitical shocks and trade disruptions.
- KENYA
Fixed Income:
Softer yields persist despite mixed liquidity signals. Money market conditions were mixed in March 2026, with slightly weaker demand but sufficient flows to meet issuance and refinancing needs. Yields edged lower, particularly at the short and long ends of the curve. The 08 April 2026 MPC will provide guidance on risk profiling by authorities.Currency:
Dollar strength drives rare pressure on the Shilling. The Shilling weakened by 0.8% m/m in March 2026 as Middle East conflict boosted US Dollar demand and delayed rate-cut expectations. However, stronger reserves (USD 14.0bn) and attractive real yields provide a solid buffer against external shocks.
- NIGERIA
Fixed Income:
Higher risk premiums constrained the Treasury allotments. Nigeria upscaled its T-bill offers in March 2026 but allotted less despite sufficient demand as higher bid yields limited acceptance. We believe geopolitical risk-off sentiment and investor caution on inflation underpinned the higher risk premiums and tempered the issuance size.Currency:
Risk-off flows weigh on the Naira. The Naira weakened by 1.7% month-on-month in March 2026 as geopolitical tensions triggered exits from risk assets. We view the reforms, strong reserves and remittances as stability anchors but rising energy prices risk stalling disinflation and sustaining near-term pressure.
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