IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: Flush liquidity persisted in January 2026, lifting demand for Ghana’s T-bills as investors positioned ahead of the late-month policy rate cut, with an unusually strong tilt toward the 364-day tenor. With maturities set to fall 7.8% m/m to GHS 27.0bn in February 2026 and DDEP coupon inflows supporting liquidity, we expect downward pressure on yields alongside the lower policy rate.

 

• Currency: The USDGHS spread narrowed across markets in January 2026, appreciating 4.1% at retail but depreciating 4.3% on the interbank market. We view the interbank weakness as a post-festive correction toward fair value, with unmet FX demand leaving scope for further upside in the USDGHS rate in February despite expected B0G FX sales.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Kenyan Treasury bills softened in January 2026 but bids were sufficient to absorb the Treasury’s target and refinancing need for the month with the yield curve inching downward at the middle to back-end of the T-bill curve. The curve dynamics suggest that yields may have reached bottom with inflation sticky around the mid-4.0% levels since August 2025.

 

• Currency: The Shilling traded sideways in January 2026 around 129/USD, supported by strong FX reserves of USD 12.3bn (5.3 months of import cover). In the month ahead, we expect this buffer, alongside supportive real rates, to keep the USDKES anchored near current levels.

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Nigerian T-bills strengthened in January 2026, with bids covering the target by 2.2x, but yields rose across the curve. We attribute the uptick to uncertainty around inflation following revisions to CPI methodology, and expect short-term yields to remain under pressure in February pending clearer guidance from the MPC.

 

• Currency: The Naira started 2026 strongly, appreciating 4.2% in January as FX reserves rose and the US dollar softened globally. With net reserves up to USD 45.6bn and portfolio inflows supporting liquidity, we expect policy anchors and reserve strength to sustain Naira stability ahead of MPC guidance.