IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: Ghana’s T-bill auctions posted a 74.3% success rate in November 2025 as banks’ heavy redemption cycle kept weekly average bids of GHS 4.5bn below the GHS 6.1bn needed to meet targets, prompting a second month of yield increases. We expect the Treasury to hold yields near current levels in December, with the policy rate cut helping to compress the spread over BOG bills ahead of expected lower inflation print for November
  
  
   Currency
  The Cedi weakened by 3.8% against the US Dollar on the interbank market in November 2025 despite the BOG’s GHS 1.0bn FX sales. However, retail rates firmed 1.5% to 11.8/12.2, likely due to remittance inflows. We expect a continued, orderly depreciation in December as the BOG prioritises rebuilding reserves to five months’ import cover and trims FX market support to USD 800mn for December 2025.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income:Investor appetite rebounded for Kenyan T-bills in November 2025, aided by the Treasury’s buyback of the May-2026 bond, which injected fresh liquidity. However, the market ultimately favoured duration and locked-in yields, shifting momentum towards the bonds market. 

  Currency

  The Shilling slipped 0.36% m/m in November 2025 as panic FX demand prompted Central Bank intervention, trimming reserves by 2.0% to a still-strong USD 11.95bn. We expect the low inflation expectations to support KES stability, but negotiations for a new IMF-supported programme pose a medium-term risk of gradual FX adjustment.

 

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Investor demand for Nigerian T-bills strengthened in November 2025 as fund managers positioned for an expected policy rate cut that would reinforce the downward pressure on yields. The Treasury comfortably refinanced its T-bill maturities by 2.38x and exceeded its monthly issuance target by 1.21x, prompting a flattening at the back-end of the curve.
   

  Currency

  The Naira slipped 1.5% m/m in November 2025 as rising FX demand and weaker liquidity unwound earlier gains. Mounting security risks and a warning of possible US action from President Trump added to the pressure. While these tensions weigh on the near-term outlook, we expect improving fundamentals, to anchor the Naira over the medium term.