IN BRIEF

• GHANA
  Fixed Income: T-bill demand weakened for the second consecutive month due to investors shifting to higher-yielding OMO bills and negative real returns on the short-term securities. The IC Government Bond Index (IC-GBI) rose 4.2% m/m (+21.0% YTD) to 86.8pts, driven by active trading in 2027–2031 bonds as the general decline in yields continues across the domestic curve.
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  Currency

  The Ghanaian Cedi appreciated by 9.5% m/m (+3.9% YTD), supported by aggressive FX interventions by the Bank of Ghana (USD 495.5mn sold |+89.0% m/m) and a weaker USD globally. We estimate that the Cedi’s strength improves the appeal of T-bills despite falling nominal yields.

 

• KENYA
  Fixed Income: T-bill demand remained strong, especially for the 364-day paper, as investors sought to lock in high yields amid a dovish Central Bank, which cut its policy rate by 75bps in April. We expect Kenyan T-bill yields to decline further in the short-term, albeit restrained by inflation upturn.

  Currency
  The Kenyan Shilling held stable in April 2025, backed by robust FX reserves of USD 9.81bn (4.4 months of import cover). The drawdown of USD 500mn from the USD 1.5bn UAE bond will provide added FX support, reinforcing near-term currency resilience. In the medium-term, the Central Bank’s plan to commence gold buying for FX reserves will provide further cushion against the risk of limited external market access.

 

 

• NIGERIA
  Fixed Income: Demand for the 364-day tenor weakened sharply despite yields holding steady. Inflation upturn by 100bps to 24.2% in March 2025 could prompt the CBN to maintain its policy rate at 27.5% in the May 2025 MPC meeting, keeping yields stable amid inflation uncertainty.
  
  Currency

  The Nigerian Naira depreciated against the US Dollar for the second straight month, pressured by falling oil revenues and reduced carry trade interest. While FX inflows remain low with a risk of further Naira depreciation, we expect the CBN interventions to slow the pace of depreciation in the near term.