GhanaMacroeconomic updateMulti-asset strategy

10 November 2022

Ghana’s October Inflation: Proving intractable

In brief

  • Headline inflation accelerated to 40.4% y/y in October 2022 from 37.2% y/y a month earlier.


  • The surge in food prices was a major driver of headline inflation as food inflation soared to 43.7% y/y in October 2022 (vs 37.8% in September 2022).


  • Since November 2021, we have seen a cumulative increase of 1,100bps in the monetary policy rate to 24.5% as of October 2022. However, intensified FX pressure has emboldened CPI inflation which appears intractable at this point.


  • Against the backdrop of recent hikes in ex-pump prices and a 19% increase in commercial transport fares, we foresee further rises in headline inflation in the final two months of 2022.


  • The latest upsurge in headline inflation with upside risk to the near-term outlook strengthens the case for another hike in Ghana’s monetary policy rate at the final MPC meeting for 2022.