In brief
- A cut with restrictive bias to consolidate stability. The Bank of Ghana’s Monetary Policy Committee delivered a 250bps cut in the policy rate to 15.5% in January 2026, extending its dovish pivot into the new year. The larger-than-expected cut reflects the decisive improvements in macro risks, including stronger external buffers, subdued core inflation, and firmer fiscal discipline. Despite the aggressive easing, the MPC maintained its restrictive bias, keeping the real policy rate in double digits at 10.1%. This stance reinforces our expectation that the MPC will maintain a tight policy stance through 2026 to consolidate the macro stability, with real rates likely to remain above our estimated neutral level of 5.0%.
- We foresee renewed downward pressure ahead for domestic yields as OMO, Repo and Treasury bill rates reprice lower. The Bank of Ghana reset OMO pricing to 400bps below the policy rate in November 2025, implying post-January 2026 OMO yields of between 11.0% – 12.0%. The first post-MPC OMO cleared at 11.99%, confirming a 250bps compression and signalling an imminent drop in Repo rates into single digits. We expect this pricing backdrop to intensify demand for T-bills as investors seek to lock-in double-digit carry, reinforced by incoming DDEP coupon flows into the belly and back-end of the curve. As pricing power shifts towards the Treasury, we expect renewed downward pressure on yields and a clearer window for the Treasury’s strategic return to the domestic bond market in 1H2026.
- Tactical profit-taking while de-risking the forex reserve mix. We observed a sharp reduction in gold holdings from 38.0 tonnes in October to 18.6 tonnes in December 2025, lowering gold’s share of Ghana’s gross international reserves to 19.4% in line with peer benchmarks. The authorities redeployed the gold proceeds into FX-denominated earning assets, lifting gross international reserves to USD 13.8bn, equivalent to 5.7 months of import cover at FY2025. We view this as proactive reserve management, locking-in gains from the 2025 gold rally, reducing exposure to gold price volatility, and strengthening FX carry to support Cedi stability.
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