In brief
- Food-driven price pressures lift inflation, but underlying resilience remained intact. Ghana’s consumer price inflation increased by 30bps to 3.7% year-on-year in May 2026, marking a second consecutive increase. This pickup in price pressure was due to seasonal food supply constraints which propelled food inflation to 3.3% year-on-year (+110bps), outweighing a 10bps downtick in non-food inflation (4.1%). However, subdued goods inflation and continued deflation in transport costs highlight limited pass-through from external energy price shocks, reinforcing the resilience of Ghana’s inflation framework despite near-term supply-side pressures.
- Unfavourable base effect, Cedi weakness and food supply constraints set the stage for a sharp inflation rebound above 5.0%. We anticipate a strong acceleration in annual inflation in June 2026, due to unfavourable base effect, emerging exchange rate pass-through and persistent seasonal food supply pressures. Although the Bank of Ghana may trigger special FX interventions to quell the Cedi pressure and temper the rise, we expect headline inflation to climb above 5.0%, marking a notable shift from the recent low inflation environment. We thus forecast a 200bps surge in annual headline inflation to 5.7% in June 2026.
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