In brief
- Inflation falls below target with single digits in sight. Ghana’s inflation surprised to the downside in August 2025, easing to 11.5%, the lowest since October 2021 and below the authorities’ end-2025 target of 11.9%. We attribute the sharp drop to stronger seasonal CPI contraction, boosted by crop harvest and sustained impact of 1H2025 FX gains. The surprise disinflation further sharpens our view of single digit inflation within reach by year-end.
- High real policy rate points to another deep cut ahead at the September MPC meeting. Ghana’s rapid disinflation continues to signal a significantly restrictive monetary stance, with real policy rate currently at 13.5%. Without a cut in the nominal policy rate, our forecast inflation suggests a real policy rate above 15.0% in September. This leaves ample room for the MPC to deliver a second successive rate cut with our base case pointing to a 300bps move lower to 22.0% for the nominal policy rate.
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