In brief
- The final phase of Ghana’s disinflation cycle unfolds as inflation downturn moderates. Ghana recorded a 14th consecutive month of disinflation in February 2026, with headline inflation easing by 50bps to 3.3% y/y, a tad below our 3.5% forecast. We believe this marks the exhaustion of the 2022 –2024 inflation shock cycle and the restoration of price stability. However, a divergence in food (2.4% y/y | -150bps) and non-food inflation (4.0% y/y | +30bps) suggests the disinflation phase is nearing completion as supply risks gradually re-emerge.
- We expect a modest inflation rebound and a cautious policy rate cut ahead in March 2026. We forecast a 60bps uptick in headline inflation to 3.9% y/y in March 2026, driven by delayed utility tariff pass-through, geopolitics-induced push on Brent price above USD 83.0pb, and planting-season food pressures. Nevertheless, we still view inflation as well contained. With an estimated 12.2% real policy rate, we believe the MPC retains scope for rate easing at the March meeting but will likely cut cautiously by 100 – 200bps, leaning towards 150bps, due to the fluid impacts of the geopolitical events.
Downloads
Download Full Report