In brief
- Core strength amid a softening headline. Ghana’s overall real GDP grew by 5.5% YoY in 3Q2025, easing from 7.0% last year. However, underlying activity remained firm with non-oil growth at 6.8% while our estimated non-mining real GDP showed improvement to 5.4% (vs. 4.7% a year prior), reflecting easing incremental boost from mining. The overall slowdown largely reflects weaker extractives and a sharp post-election contraction in government consumption, while households and agriculture continued to support growth. Generally, core domestic sectors remain resilient although fiscal tightening tempers the headline pace.
- Domestic demand, digitalisation and targeted fiscal support anchor growth in services and agriculture amid a pullback in industry. The 3Q2025 growth was driven by a strong services sector, up 7.6% YoY with ICT leading at 17.0% due to rising digital adoption and improved consumer demand. Agriculture expanded by 8.6% YoY on targeted food-crop fiscal interventions and favourable weather conditions, while industry slowed sharply to 0.8% YoY as mining growth normalised while oil & gas contracted sharply. Looking ahead, we expect year-end consumer spending and resilient crops to lift 4Q2025 growth to between 4.5% – 6.4% to keep our FY2025 growth forecast within 5.7% ± 0.5pp, although construction and extractives are likely to remain subdued year-on-year.
OUR ASSET CLASS VIEWS
- Overweight:
Strong ICT growth supports overweight positions in telecoms and fintech (subject to benchmark weight), underpinned by pricing power, recurring revenue, and solid cash flow. In the consumer sector, we expect the recovering household spending and efficient distribution to sustain revenue growth, with potential capital appreciation as the primary investment case.
- Neutral-to-underweight:
Slower mining growth may dampen fuel demand for OMCs, but we expect government-led road construction and strong bitumen demand to offset the shortfall and support non-core revenues.
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