In brief
- Growth momentum anchored beyond hydrocarbons: Ghana’s economy stayed resilient in 2Q2025 with overall real GDP growth of 6.3% y/y (vs 5.7% in 2Q2024), as robust growth from services sector outweighed the slower momentum in agriculture and industry. Non-oil real GDP was the standout performer with a stronger growth of 7.8% y/y (vs 5.7% in 2Q2024), reinforcing the economy’s strength beyond oil and signalling a supportive outlook for consumer sector, given the 97.6% share of non-oil output in overall GDP.
- Banks, bytes, and blackboards beat amid favourable base support for services growth. The overall growth outturn was anchored by a vibrant services sector (+9.9% y/y), supported by recovery in trade, hospitality, and transport, alongside robust expansion in financial services (+9.7% y/y), ICT (+21.3% y/y), and education (+16.6% y/y). In our view, the revival in informal sector income, stronger bank balance sheets, rising fintech integration, and accelerated digital infrastructure investment reinforced services as the new growth pole, with price stability amplifying consumer demand and positioning the sector to drive momentum into 2H2025.
- Outlook upgraded to a higher growth call: Despite structural drags in hydrocarbons, we raise our forecast for overall real GDP growth to 5.5% ±0.5pp in FY2025 on account of resilient household consumption, business investment executions, and construction support (vs 4.3% prior midpoint forecast and 4.0% GOG target).
Downloads
Download Full Report