In brief
- Consumer spending is emerging as the next growth engine with hydrocarbon recovery stirring up. Ghana’s economy expanded by 6.4% y/y in 1Q2026, supported by rebound in oil & gas sector, stronger trade, transport and ICT activity as lower inflation boosted household spending. Despite slower non-oil growth and fiscal tightening, we envisage broadening demand and construction rebound to keep FY2026 growth firmly above 6.0%.
- Industry: Extractives dig deep to anchor industry growth against cool-off in manufacturing. The industrial sector expanded by 6.9% in 1Q2026, supported by a strong rebound in mining and a return to growth in oil and gas production as upstream producers revive investment under new fiscal terms. We view the slower but still strong momentum in manufacturing as a normalisation while resilient household spending and renewed upstream investment should sustain industrial momentum in the coming quarters.
- Services: Consumer spending and digital transformation are driving Ghana’s services boom. The services sector grew by 7.1% in 1Q2026, led by strong gains in trade, ICT and transport. In our opinion, the subdued inflation environment boosted domestic demand and enterprise investment while rapid digital adoption positions telecoms operators, particularly the dominant Scancom PLC, for stronger earnings growth.
- Agriculture: Cocoa slows down and fishing contracts again to hold back agriculture growth. Cocoa sector growth slowed sharply to 3.8% in 1Q2026, reflecting base effects and persistent structural challenges. This combined with a sharp contraction in fishing to pull down agriculture sector’s growth to 4.0% (vs 6.6% in 1Q2025). Nonetheless, we expect the planned domestic financing model for crop purchases to support production while strong economy-wide momentum reinforces our FY2026 growth forecast of 6.4% ± 0.5pp. We envisage growth firmly above the authorities’ conservative 4.8% target for the year and expect an upward revision at the mid-year budget review in July 2026.
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